Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
