Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
